• Predicción especial. Semana Santa
Nire Weba
Aplikazio ofiziala 'El tiempo de AEMET'(Android eta IOS)
Kontaktatu
Web Mapa
Jarraitu guri Facebooken
Jarraitu guri Twitteren
AEMET blog.es
Jarraitu guri YouTuben
RSS

Calibration and combination of seasonal forecast over Southern Europe

          Authors:

Eroteida Sánchez García (Delegación territorial de AEMET en Cantabria)

José Voces Aboy (Delegación territorial de AEMET en Cantabria)

Ernesto Rodríguez Camino (Servicios centrales de AEMET)

Abstract:

Verification of temperature and precipitation seasonal forecasts from four different operational systems - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system 4, Météo-France system 3, UK Met Office system 3 and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) system version 2 - for different seasons, lead times, variables and sub-regions over Southern Europe is computed based on available hindcasts. The impact of calibration and combination of seasonal hindcasts using different setups of a Bayesian scheme has also been discussed. Although results show relatively low skill as a consequence of the low predictability at seasonal scale over mid-latitudes, there is a noticeable consistency among models.  As expected over Southern Europe, scores for temperature are better than for precipitation. We also show and discuss windows of opportunity associated to certain seasons/variables/models/regions.

Contents:

1.   Introduction

2.   Data

3.   Methodology

4.   Verification

5.   Results

6.   Conclusions

7.   References

Annex I. Description of FA method

Annex II. Number of modes by the MCA

Email
Partekatu Twitter-en
© AEMET. Informazioa erabiltzea baimenduta eta AEMET aipatuz gero, erreproduzitzea ere.
Aplikazio ofiziala 'El tiempo de AEMET'(Android eta IOS)
Jarraitu guri Facebooken
Jarraitu guri Twitteren
AEMET blog.es
Jarraitu guri YouTuben
RSS