Authors:
Eroteida Sánchez García (Delegación territorial de AEMET en Cantabria)
José Voces Aboy (Delegación territorial de AEMET en Cantabria)
Ernesto Rodríguez Camino (Servicios centrales de AEMET)
Abstract:
Verification of temperature and precipitation seasonal forecasts from four different operational systems - European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
system 4,
Météo-France system 3,
UK Met Office system 3 and
National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) system version 2 - for different seasons, lead times, variables and sub-regions over Southern Europe is computed based on available hindcasts. The impact of calibration and combination of seasonal hindcasts using different setups of a Bayesian scheme has also been discussed. Although results show relatively low skill as a consequence of the low predictability at seasonal scale over mid-latitudes, there is a noticeable consistency among models. As expected over Southern Europe, scores for temperature are better than for precipitation. We also show and discuss windows of opportunity associated to certain seasons/variables/models/regions.
Contents:
1. Introduction
2. Data
3. Methodology
4. Verification
5. Results
6. Conclusions
7. References
Annex I. Description of FA method
Annex II. Number of modes by the MCA
