El meu Web
Aplicación oficial 'El Tiempo de AEMET' (Android e iOS)
Contactar
Mapa web
Segueix-nos a Facebook
Segueix-nos a Twiter
AEMET blog.es
Segueix-nos a YouTube
RSS

Calibration and combination of seasonal forecast over Southern Europe

          Authors:

Eroteida Sánchez García (Delegación territorial de AEMET en Cantabria)

José Voces Aboy (Delegación territorial de AEMET en Cantabria)

Ernesto Rodríguez Camino (Servicios centrales de AEMET)

Abstract:

Verification of temperature and precipitation seasonal forecasts from four different operational systems - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system 4, Météo-France system 3, UK Met Office system 3 and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) system version 2 - for different seasons, lead times, variables and sub-regions over Southern Europe is computed based on available hindcasts. The impact of calibration and combination of seasonal hindcasts using different setups of a Bayesian scheme has also been discussed. Although results show relatively low skill as a consequence of the low predictability at seasonal scale over mid-latitudes, there is a noticeable consistency among models.  As expected over Southern Europe, scores for temperature are better than for precipitation. We also show and discuss windows of opportunity associated to certain seasons/variables/models/regions.

Contents:

1.   Introduction

2.   Data

3.   Methodology

4.   Verification

5.   Results

6.   Conclusions

7.   References

Annex I. Description of FA method

Annex II. Number of modes by the MCA

Email
Compartir en Twitter
© AEMET. Autoritzat l'ús de la informació i la seua reproducció citant AEMET com a autora de la mateixa.
Aplicación oficial 'El Tiempo de AEMET' (Android e iOS)
Segueix-nos a Facebook
Segueix-nos a Twiter
AEMET blog.es
Segueix-nos a YouTube
RSS